Just how rare are these new-fangled skins?

[TheTraditionalGentleman]

So I was looking at the Trade Inn for the first time, and then saw that you can sell/buy clothes on steam. And that's where I saw the amazing looking survivor skins. Specifically the Woodie one. Does anyone happen to have an idea of the actual rareness of the skins themselves? I'd so want to get the Woodie Survivor one, but I don't think I can bring myself to shell out the $13 dollars people are asking for it (besides, 13 is supposed to be an unlucky number XD ). So just how rare is it to get one of these, if anyone knows?

[GiddyGuy]

Pretty much you have the same chance of getting a common shirt as you are getting a survivor Woodie skin.

(Unless @PeterA says otherwise)

[Asparagus]

...

There was a sort of Skins Civil War before anything else... as a recap:

Spoiler

1. skins - good
2. skins with money - bad
3. skins with money - bad- not mandatory
4. TF2
5. An influx of people abusing the system
6. Klei getting money from players
7. 50/50 (I guess) split who agree that klei should get a percentage (as well as steam)
8. JoeW and the rest of klei Klei
9. Threats of boycotting
10. New Trade in system where you can give an in-game merchant of sorts 9 skins of the same class (except Elegants) and get a better skin randomly
11. Elegant skins - colored in red - are the rarest released so far, save for the Timeless Potato Cup are the rarest
12. People using supply and demand to price the items, ergo, the rarer the item and the lower the amount of players in possession of them and the lower the number of them in circulation in the store, the more expensive
13. An argument about people who can't afford these have no chance of getting them (forgetting the fact that everyone gets the same chances of getting them through drops and the items in the market are being sold by people who got lucky)
14. Getting something from nothing (i.e. steam credits for free skins)
15. Economics jargon about how the prices will balance out.
16. Peace treaty.

might want to skip to #11 and # 12 for your answer.

You can wait for the prices to go down after a while if you want, or get lucky and get a drop

[Auth]

Just now, GiddyGuy said:

Pretty much you have the same chance of getting a common shirt as you are getting a survivor Woodie skin.

(Unless @PeterA says otherwise)

SAY THAT TO MY SEVEN NO TAN LINES TANS SKIRTS FROM DROPS BUCKO

[GiddyGuy]

Just now, Weirdobob said:

SAY THAT TO MY SEVEN NO TAN LINES TANS SKIRTS FROM DROPS BUCKO

Obviously you didn't pray to the Klei gods, sacrifice a doydoy to the drop gods, and killed your first born smallbird for RNGesus. :^)

[Auth]

21 minutes ago, GiddyGuy said:

killed your first born smallbird for RNGesus. :^)

 

21 minutes ago, GiddyGuy said:

killed

 

22 minutes ago, GiddyGuy said:

smallbird

 

Ok you know what buddy

You've crossed the line this time

*angrily tacks away on keyboard*

[Sheauwn]

There is a very easy way to test their rarity.

Simply look through your old toy shelves for a one dice block with dots 1-6. If you get 7 dots in a single toss, congratulations, that's how hard it is to get a survivor skin.

[Asparagus]

 Dat GoH doe :3 Purtey

[Sheauwn]

1 minute ago, Asparagus said:

 Dat GoH doe :3 Purtey

 

You know he looks like an epic pirate in silhouette form <3

[Asparagus]

The Suave of Woodie never ceases to amaze

[Soto8969]

or you can just beg everyone who seems to have one of those.

I would not mind if someone gives one to me 

[GuyNamedChris]

56 minutes ago, Soto8969 said:

or you can just beg everyone who seems to have one of those.

I would not mind if someone gives one to me 

That works too, Giddy gave me a willow GoH cause I wanted it

To sate your Survivor Woodie lust, have a drawing of his portrait!

[TemporaryMan]

For a more concrete answer, your chance of getting any elegant skin is ~1%.  Your chance of getting the one you want is 1/29 of that, or ~0.034%.  So even if you get an elegant on your own, you'll probably need to trade for the one you want anyway.

[TheTraditionalGentleman]

2 hours ago, Chris1488 said:

That works too, Giddy gave me a willow GoH cause I wanted it

To sate your Survivor Woodie lust, have a drawing of his portrait!

Alas, this drawing cannot sate the hunger I feel within. . . 

5 hours ago, Asparagus said:

...

There was a sort of Skins Civil War before anything else... as a recap:

  Reveal hidden contents

1. skins - good
2. skins with money - bad
3. skins with money - bad- not mandatory
4. TF2
5. An influx of people abusing the system
6. Klei getting money from players
7. 50/50 (I guess) split who agree that klei should get a percentage (as well as steam)
8. JoeW and the rest of klei Klei
9. Threats of boycotting
10. New Trade in system where you can give an in-game merchant of sorts 9 skins of the same class (except Elegants) and get a better skin randomly
11. Elegant skins - colored in red - are the rarest released so far, save for the Timeless Potato Cup are the rarest
12. People using supply and demand to price the items, ergo, the rarer the item and the lower the amount of players in possession of them and the lower the number of them in circulation in the store, the more expensive
13. An argument about people who can't afford these have no chance of getting them (forgetting the fact that everyone gets the same chances of getting them through drops and the items in the market are being sold by people who got lucky)
14. Getting something from nothing (i.e. steam credits for free skins)
15. Economics jargon about how the prices will balance out.
16. Peace treaty.

might want to skip to #11 and # 12 for your answer.

You can wait for the prices to go down after a while if you want, or get lucky and get a drop

I remember that XD  I tried to stay out of that civil war. Well, I guess I'll just keep on playing, and maybe I'll get lucky. Or maybe I'll break down into a twitching, neurotic mess and just buy the skin and deal with the self loathing later XD  Or maybe some kind soul will sell it to me for cheaper. One can always hope

[MdsTheGriffin]

Woodie is Bae.

[Quyzbuk]

4 hours ago, Mdshadowman said:

Woodie is Bae.

Baeh*

[Soto8969]

I prefer Wendy survival skins.

[PeterA]

On 4/10/2016 at 5:43 PM, GiddyGuy said:

Pretty much you have the same chance of getting a common shirt as you are getting a survivor Woodie skin.

(Unless @PeterA says otherwise)

Otherwise! Different tiers have different rarities.

[GuyNamedChris]

10 minutes ago, PeterA said:

Otherwise! Different tiers have different rarities.

That explains my 8 consecutive common skins...

 

EDIT: I saved the moment!

[Mikeadatrix]

On 4/10/2016 at 5:45 PM, Asparagus said:

...

There was a sort of Skins Civil War before anything else... as a recap:

  Hide contents

1. skins - good
2. skins with money - bad
3. skins with money - bad- not mandatory
4. TF2
5. An influx of people abusing the system
6. Klei getting money from players
7. 50/50 (I guess) split who agree that klei should get a percentage (as well as steam)
8. JoeW and the rest of klei Klei
9. Threats of boycotting
10. New Trade in system where you can give an in-game merchant of sorts 9 skins of the same class (except Elegants) and get a better skin randomly
11. Elegant skins - colored in red - are the rarest released so far, save for the Timeless Potato Cup are the rarest
12. People using supply and demand to price the items, ergo, the rarer the item and the lower the amount of players in possession of them and the lower the number of them in circulation in the store, the more expensive
13. An argument about people who can't afford these have no chance of getting them (forgetting the fact that everyone gets the same chances of getting them through drops and the items in the market are being sold by people who got lucky)
14. Getting something from nothing (i.e. steam credits for free skins)
15. Economics jargon about how the prices will balance out.
16. Peace treaty.

might want to skip to #11 and # 12 for your answer.

You can wait for the prices to go down after a while if you want, or get lucky and get a drop

Me:Back in my day Elegants were the hip cool items!

People Now:Shuddup Grunkle Mike you know nothing >:c

[GiddyGuy]

1 hour ago, Chris1488 said:

EDIT: I saved the moment!

His amount of likes makes sense he did help design the drop system.

[PeterA]

47 minutes ago, GiddyGuy said:

His amount of likes makes sense he did help design the drop system.

I'm just not as likable as @nome :'(

[GiddyGuy]

2 minutes ago, PeterA said:

I'm just not as likable as @nome :'(

Don't say that we love you and your dank maymays, @nome doesn't even have the dankest ones that you maymay. ;-;

[nome]

1 hour ago, PeterA said:

I'm just not as likable as @nome :'(

I may have a better like:post ratio, but I don't have my own steam fanclub like you do! Probably because you actually do helpful things, whereas I just make snarky forum posts.  

[Asparagus]

14 minutes ago, nome said:

I may have a better like:post ratio, but I don't have my own steam fanclub like you do! Probably because you actually do helpful things, whereas I just make snarky forum posts.  

Well, I guess you can start the cult of the potato cup O__O All hail the potato cup! \(O__O)/

(Well, nome does handle the servers and skin drops O__O if I remember correctly.)