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Bigfoot

Winona Character Update & Drop System Changes

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__IvoCZE__    7536
1 hour ago, axxel said:

There are two scenes with the same background. One of them has a circle and "12"

image.png.9a0767978a7cfa83dea3ff547ad2dd37.png

that might be just the scene numbering during the animation making.

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BerryGood    3
2 hours ago, Viktor234 said:

Previously you were limited to four skins a week and had a chance of 0.005 to get an Elegant with each drop, so there was a chance of

1 - (1 - 0.005)^  4 = 0,019850499375 =   1,99%

to get at least a single elegant drop each week.

Now you can get up to 15 skins a week, and you have a chance of 0.023 to get an Elegant with each drop, so now there's a chance of

1 - (1 - 0.023)^15 = 0,294627610868 = 29,46%

to get at least a single elegant drop each week.

But on the other hand waveable items can now drop aswell so not every item will be tradeable on Steam or the Trade Inn.

No, drops are independent, each time they occur.

Thus, the probabilty stays the same no matter how many times a drop occur.

For every drop the probability was 0.5% and now it is 2.3%

So, now every time you get a drop, you have 2.3% to get en elegant, not 29.46%

Cheers

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ToSoublaki    12
4 minutes ago, BerryGood said:

No, drops are independent, each time they occur.

Thus, the probabilty stays the same no matter how many times a drop occur.

For every drop the probability was 0.5% and now it is 2.3%

So, now every time you get a drop, you have 2.3% to get en elegant, not 29.46%

Cheers

He's calculating the chance of getting an elegant out of 15 tries.

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JimmyJam    1354
33 minutes ago, FuffledBeeQueen said:

:thinking_emoji: Wagstaff is that you? You look very, very, uhm muscular.
dNDi3ol.png

Where is that image on the right from? Been asking around but no one has said.

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maradyne    4971
4 hours ago, Endramada said:

5c8161a2d95ca_DontStarveTogether_NextofKinWinonaAnimatedShort-YouTube-GoogleChrome3_7_20193_20_17PM.png.292e7712e24048cab49a7da65ae5ce3f.png

Willow and Wickerbottom foreshadowing?

...I'm beginning to get the impression that Willow was being led on by Maxwell for a good while. Oof.

 

3 hours ago, Michi01 said:

The timeline doesn't quite add up. We know Wilson had a Voxola radio in the "Forbidden Knowledge" short and that the Voxola factory was only open for a couple of days. When Wilson was pulled into the Constant, Maxwell was still in charge, but here it's already Charlie. Wilson seems to have lived somewhere in the middle of nowhere so I don't see how he could've gotten a Voxola radio within the span of a couple of days.
This means that from the real world's perspective, Winona got pulled into the Constant by Charlie before Wilson got pulled in by Maxwell.
We already know that time moves differently in the Constant, but this takes it a step further and implies that events in the Constant can be perceived in a different order in the real world.

It's Likely that Charlie pulled her in through a portal 'connected' by Maxwell. Her trait of switching personalities is the way she was before acquiring the Throne (ANR trailer), meaning Winona was likely pulled in during Maxwell's reign, even if he didn't do it/didn't personally engage with her due to lack of awareness of her presence.

 

3 hours ago, PeterA said:

It is currently set to tick over to a new day at the same time that the Drop timer resets, 1:40PM Pacific time I believe, though we will likely adjust that in the future.

Do keep a definite time of day, or set it for 23 hours; 24 hour timers lead to this weird loop where players steadily have to schedule their playtime later and later to get their rewards.

 

1 hour ago, FuffledBeeQueen said:

:thinking_emoji: Wagstaff is that you? You look very, very, uhm muscular.
dNDi3ol.png

I'm reading some, uh, unexpected timescales from this whole thing. Like...
I don't think that Winona was the most recent survivor to arrive. She was just the most recent one to enter the spotlight.
In that same vein, if this is Wagstaff, he'd have had time to become a totally ripped hardcore survival man.

...if I'm right about Hamlet's timeline being before original DS and Wilson just being in it because VIDYA GAEM, this could get interesting.

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BerryGood    3
1 hour ago, ToSoublaki said:

He's calculating the chance of getting an elegant out of 15 tries.

No, that is not how <independent> probabilities work, sorry

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Zeklo    18192
8 minutes ago, BerryGood said:

No, that is not how <independent> probabilities work, sorry

It's exactly because its independent probability that it works. The probability will remain the same over any span of time. The chance of getting an elegant is 2.3%. However the whole point of probability is to make inferences. The likelihood of getting an elegant "increases" the more drops you get. The probability isn't changing but statistically you should get one in a set amount of time. Doesn't mean you will but probability suggests it.

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BerryGood    3
5 minutes ago, Zeklo said:

It's exactly because its independent probability that it works. The probability will remain the same over any span of time. The chance of getting an elegant is 2.3%. However the whole point of probability is to make inferences. The likelihood of getting an elegant "increases" the more drops you get. The probability isn't changing but statistically you should get one in a set amount of time. Doesn't mean you will but probability suggests it.

Hello Zeklo, so after 45 drops the probability > 100%

At that point he will for sure get an elegant?

Is that what you mean?

Cheers

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Zeklo    18192
2 minutes ago, BerryGood said:

Hello Zeklo, so after 45 drops the probability > 100%

At that point he will for sure get an elegant?

Is that what you mean?

Cheers

Statistically, yes. Realistically, who knows. 

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Zeklo    18192

Wait, is Heirloom rarity meant to show up with the "unowned" filter on?

That'll drive me nuts if so. 

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PeterA    5878
4 minutes ago, Zeklo said:

Wait, is Heirloom rarity meant to show up with the "unowned" filter on?

That'll drive me nuts if so.

We're still looking at how we want the design of this to work.

In the mean time you could turn the Weaveable filter on to hide them.

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Tapirus    2044
56 minutes ago, lifetheuniverse said:

It's Likely that Charlie pulled her in through a portal 'connected' by Maxwell. Her trait of switching personalities is the way she was before acquiring the Throne (ANR trailer), meaning Winona was likely pulled in during Maxwell's reign, even if he didn't do it/didn't personally engage with her due to lack of awareness of her presence.

Exactly, Winona is a "stowaway", arriving to Constant due to her intervention with the portal in Voxola.

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Terra M Welch    4013
18 minutes ago, PeterA said:

We're still looking at how we want the design of this to work.

In the mean time you could turn the Weaveable filter on to hide them.

Does this mean if someone wanted to 100% winona right now they'd need both the heirloom and normal elegants?

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fimmatek    4108
1 hour ago, BerryGood said:

No, drops are independent, each time they occur.

Thus, the probabilty stays the same no matter how many times a drop occur.

For every drop the probability was 0.5% and now it is 2.3%

So, now every time you get a drop, you have 2.3% to get en elegant, not 29.46%

Cheers

Drops are indeed independent, each of them has the same 2,3% chance to be an elegant. But out of 15 drops it has 29,46% chance to have at least one elegant. Not all elegants, but at least one. 

27 minutes ago, BerryGood said:

Hello Zeklo, so after 45 drops the probability > 100%

At that point he will for sure get an elegant?

Is that what you mean?

Cheers

The longer you play, the higher the expected number of elegants get. After some time it'll reach 1 and get past it. This means that on long term average, you can expect one elegant in that time. And while it's not guaranteed that any will drop, it is also popssible that multiple ones drop, so on average you would get one.

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