Gift Drops.

[CrimXane]

i'm sure someone did the math, if you aren't as unlucky as i am, 
what hours it might take you to get an elegant from a gift ( that includes in-game gifts assuming you open them ASAP )
almost 900 hours here and i have never seen any elegant from gifts.

[Nino123]

you actually can win 15 skins/week so use the trade inn system and you'll have your elegant in few month.

[CrimXane]

19 minutes ago, Nino123 said:

you actually can win 15 skins/week so use the trade inn system and you'll have your elegant in few month.

" few month " got me tearing XD

also thanks, just got a plated skirt from these stuff hahaa

 

[fimmatek]

Elegant drops have 2,3% chance officially. That means every ~43,5th drop is supposed be an elegant on average. That is like 3 weeks, assuming you get all 15 drops every week.

Played hours don't mean much, but I heard it takes around 8-10 hours of playing to get all 8 weekly drops?

[gghhrr]

even I over 1000~2000hours never receive an elegent gift except those from events

I just only get my first elegent backpack skin from playing hours gift recently

and my friend, who play less than 50hours, he join my server and play for 5mins, he got elegent eyebird backpack skin

 

[seffard]

once every 3 weeks if you dont miss any possible gift. But I have seen that rare players(play once every year) have a much better chance to get elegants from first drops and I understand.

8 hours ago, Nino123 said:

you actually can win 15 skins/week so use the trade inn system and you'll have your elegant in few month.

Can you actually get elegants from trade inn? 

 

 

[AceTheMartyr]

8 hours ago, gghhrr said:

even I over 1000~2000hours never receive an elegent gift except those from events

I just only get my first elegent backpack skin from playing hours gift recently

and my friend, who play less than 50hours, he join my server and play for 5mins, he got elegent eyebird backpack skin

 

buy your friend a lottery ticket 

[Warlockadamm]

4 hours ago, seffard said:

Can you actually get elegants from trade inn? 

 

 

Yes you can, i actually got around 3 elegants with trade in over the last year. 

[fimmatek]

4 hours ago, seffard said:

Can you actually get elegants from trade inn? 

Yes, there is some minor chance that you get a skin more than one tier higher for 9 low-tier ones. 

If I'm not mistaken, in theory you could get an elegant even for 9 commons... but those chances must be very, very low.

[trinket_4]

After the drops update, I got 1 elegent character-skin every week (2 weeks ago I got a woodie, 1 week ago I got a wes, this week I got another wes).

Before the drops update, I got only 1 character-skin, in 3 years playing...

so just be pacient, they will come to you

[00petar00]

Took me like 500 hours for first elegant. But i am not focusing on gifts, i may play for a month every day then not play for next few months. So what im saying is i opened low amount of gifts compared to others.

[MarkStein]

13 hours ago, fimmatek said:

Yes, there is some minor chance that you get a skin more than one tier higher for 9 low-tier ones. 

If I'm not mistaken, in theory you could get an elegant even for 9 commons... but those chances must be very, very low.

Chances low, but it's possible

[Instant-Noodles]

Since the Winona Character Update (March 7, 2019), the Elegant Drop chance has been set to 2.3%.  Given this, we can calculate the following:

Mean = ~43.478 Drops
Standard Deviation = ~42.975 Drops

So, one would expect an Elegant to drop, on average, every ~43.478 Drops.  However, because the Standard Deviation is almost as big as the Mean, there is a fairly large variance in when one actually gets an Elegant drop.

If we graph this, we get:

Note: There is no Drop # where one can be 100% certain (i.e. 100% Probability) to have received at least one Elegant because it is possible that one can be so unlucky that he/she never ever receives an Elegant. This is why the line in the graph only approaches 100%, but never touches it.  

Current Chance of Getting At Least 1 Elegant By Drop #
* Number of Weeks Assumes One Gets All 15 Drops (i.e. 8 Weekly, 7 Daily) Every Week
* Number of Weeks Assumes Drops are Not Event Chests

    Chance          Drop #        Number of Weeks*
      25%          ~12.364            ~0.824
  50% (Median)     ~29.789            ~1.986
     63.64%     ~43.478 (Mean)        ~2.899
      75%          ~59.578            ~3.979 (Almost 1 Month)
      85%          ~81.531            ~5.435
      95%         ~128.746            ~8.583 (Almost 2 Months)
      99%         ~197.913           ~13.194 (Slighly Over 3 Months)

While, on average, one would expect an Elegant every ~43.478th Drop (or ~2.899 Weeks), one only has a 63.64% chance of having actually received at least one Elegant by then.  However, by the ~128.746th Drop (or ~8.583 Weeks), one would have a 95% chance that they would've received at least one Elegant.

--

EDIT:  For comparison's sake, here are the numbers from before the Winona Character Update (i.e. before Daily Drops), in which the Elegant Drop Chance was 0.50% and one would only get a max of 4 Drops per week.

Mean = 200 Drops
Standard Deviation = ~199.499 Drops

Old Chance of Getting At Least 1 Elegant By Drop # (Before March 2019)
* Number of Weeks Assumes One Gets All 4 Drops (i.e. 4 Weekly) Every Week
* Number of Weeks Assumes Drops are Not Event Chests

    Chance          Drop #        Number of Weeks*
      25%          ~57.392           ~14.348
  50% (Median)    ~138.283           ~34.571
     63.30%       200 (Mean)            50    (Almost 1 Year)
      75%         ~276.565           ~69.141  
      85%         ~378.475           ~94.619  (Almost 2 Years)
      95%         ~597.647           ~149.412 (Almost 3 Years)
      99%         ~918.730           ~229.682 (Over 4 Years!)

So, the drop changes introduced in March 2019 (i.e.the Elegant Drop rate increased from 0.50% to 2.3%, the introduction of Daily drops, and the doubling of Weekly drops), actually greatly reduced the probable time it takes for one to receive an Elegant.