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My RNG is beyond believable lately.


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Friday night I got my second and third krampus sack while farming feathers and last night I got my fourth and fifth. I was farming on forest turf surrounded by grass turf with a scarecrow set up. May help others to farm krampus faster, because I was getting tons of different types of birds spawning depending on where I stood. No I did not spawn any of these sacks in either.

322330_screenshots_20171217011635_1.jpg

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2 hours ago, Chromo said:

Wow man, that's really cool!

I did the math and even if you killed 272 Krampii (One for each day on the server) there is only a ~42% chance of getting 5!

Somebody correct me on my math, if that's wrong.

I'm getting ~13.9% chance of this event happening as a cumulative probability.

272 events, 0.01 success probability, 5 successes.

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Isn't it a 1% chance? Don't tell me you never found 2 gears in a single tumbleweed. I once did and the next two consecutive tumbleweeds found 1 gear in each. I tend to believe him, far stretched as his claim sounds.

You got some serious RNG on your side buddy. :)

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19 hours ago, Blurrykookaburr said:

Friday night I got my second and third krampus sack while farming feathers and last night I got my fourth and fifth. I was farming on forest turf surrounded by grass turf with a scarecrow set up. May help others to farm krampus faster, because I was getting tons of different types of birds spawning depending on where I stood. No I did not spawn any of these sacks in either.

322330_screenshots_20171217011635_1.jpg

 

16 hours ago, Soulk said:

I wonder why is that you have the allrecipes command ON? xD

image.jpeg.d68bade71b906979b706cd0106592d9c.jpeg

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20 hours ago, CarlZalph said:

I'm getting ~13.9% chance of this event happening as a cumulative probability.

272 events, 0.01 success probability, 5 successes.

Hmm, I'm pretty sure in hindsight my maths was wrong, but I attempted the problem again.

The probability of you getting 1 Sack is [1-(0.99^272)]

To get the probability of the next Sack is [1-(0.99^271)]

And so on and so on; after multiplying all five, I got 70.9%.

(1-(0.99^272))*(1-(0.99^271))*(1-(0.99^270))*(1-(0.99^269))*(1-(0.99^268))

What was your method?

 

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image.png.937d522f33ccacd56110f102603e64af.png

Wow, that's... one hell of a base you've got there...

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1 hour ago, Chromo said:

Hmm, I'm pretty sure in hindsight my maths was wrong, but I attempted the problem again.

The probability of you getting 1 Sack is [1-(0.99^272)]

To get the probability of the next Sack is [1-(0.99^271)]

And so on and so on; after multiplying all five, I got 70.9%.

(1-(0.99^272))*(1-(0.99^271))*(1-(0.99^270))*(1-(0.99^269))*(1-(0.99^268))

What was your method?

 

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image.png.937d522f33ccacd56110f102603e64af.png

Wow, that's... one hell of a base you've got there...

with creative mode, that base is child play

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2 hours ago, Chromo said:

Hmm, I'm pretty sure in hindsight my maths was wrong, but I attempted the problem again.

The probability of you getting 1 Sack is [1-(0.99^272)]

To get the probability of the next Sack is [1-(0.99^271)]

And so on and so on; after multiplying all five, I got 70.9%.

(1-(0.99^272))*(1-(0.99^271))*(1-(0.99^270))*(1-(0.99^269))*(1-(0.99^268))

What was your method?

let n = 272
let x = [0,5]; integers
let p = 0.01
p(x) = (n!/(x!(n-x)!))*p^x*(1-p)^(n-x)
p(0) = (272!/(0!(272-0)!))*0.01^0*(1-0.01)^(272-0) ~= 0.064978986098249810107797246343930713668744886511161435425
p(1) = (272!/(1!(272-1)!))*0.01^1*(1-0.01)^(272-1) ~= 0.178528123421454023730513646520698526443420294252887984199
p(2) = (272!/(2!(272-2)!))*0.01^2*(1-0.01)^(272-2) ~= 0.244349098218252729449339384884390407404883332032993150091
p(3) = (272!/(3!(272-3)!))*0.01^3*(1-0.01)^(272-3) ~= 0.222135543834775208590308531713082188549893938211811954628
p(4) = (272!/(4!(272-4)!))*0.01^4*(1-0.01)^(272-4) ~= 0.150895104271602351289881300582876537171518862068124787361
p(5) = (272!/(5!(272-5)!))*0.01^5*(1-0.01)^(272-5) ~= 0.081696743322806929587248865770123054468620313200520086894
p(x>=5) = 1-(p(0)+p(1)+p(2)+p(3)+p(4))
p(x>=5) ~= 0.139113144155665876832159889955021626761538686923020688296

So the odds of getting at least 5 sacks would be ~13.9%.

The odds of getting exactly 5 would be ~8.1%.

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2 hours ago, Chromo said:

Hmm, I'm pretty sure in hindsight my maths was wrong, but I attempted the problem again.

The probability of you getting 1 Sack is [1-(0.99^272)]

To get the probability of the next Sack is [1-(0.99^271)]

And so on and so on; after multiplying all five, I got 70.9%.

(1-(0.99^272))*(1-(0.99^271))*(1-(0.99^270))*(1-(0.99^269))*(1-(0.99^268))

What was your method?

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

image.png.937d522f33ccacd56110f102603e64af.png

Wow, that's... one hell of a base you've got there...

I had one already, the 4 I got two at a time over two days. I had forest turf down surrounded by grass turf with a scarecrow set up. If I went to the edge of the forest turf and read birds of the world I got 3 types of birds spawning which made my naughtiness go up much faster. The only thing i used creative for was the chests. Didn't want to spend tons of time collecting items and end up with them burning and since the person I started the world with only comes in as Wicker to make the books for me, it's a solo world and farming scales is nearly impossible as Maxwell.

8 hours ago, cezarica said:

Isn't it a 1% chance? Don't tell me you never found 2 gears in a single tumbleweed. I once did and the next two consecutive tumbleweeds found 1 gear in each. I tend to believe him, far stretched as his claim sounds.

You got some serious RNG on your side buddy. :)

No I haven't gotten that many gears in tumbleweed but it would be nice lol. I had 1 sack and ended up getting 4 more in two days. Was spectacular. 

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