Jump to content

trade inn


Recommended Posts

Hi. 

So, i used the trade inn system to change 9 commons skins and i got a spiffy sleeveless blouse. I thought that the trade inn system just allowed you to change 9 skins into one skin of the level above (so, in this case, it should be classy). Does the rules changed ? Or maybe my thoughts were fake news.

Link to comment
https://forums.kleientertainment.com/forums/topic/112122-trade-inn/
Share on other sites

There's a small chance to skip one level when trading items in the trade inn (in your case: you skipped classy and got spiffy instead). That's also the reason why it's possible to get an elegant if you trade 9x spiffy, because normally you would always get distinguished if that feature didn't excist.

On 9/26/2019 at 2:04 PM, Kuba5565 said:

+ its especially usefull when events are around becouse you get higher chance of getting something really good.

Is any of this documented anywhere? Specifically, the actual chances of possible outcomes, and any changes during events.

Asking because I haven't seen a thread on trade inn with anyone from Klei posting, and as it stands, ~13 commons + 3 weeks of waiting on Steam market for 1 distinguished definitely beats trading my way up to 9 spiffies, for a "small chance" of an elegant, or a distinguished, not of my choosing, most of the time.

2 hours ago, myxal said:

Is any of this documented anywhere? Specifically, the actual chances of possible outcomes, and any changes during events.

Asking because I haven't seen a thread on trade inn with anyone from Klei posting, and as it stands, ~13 commons + 3 weeks of waiting on Steam market for 1 distinguished definitely beats trading my way up to 9 spiffies, for a "small chance" of an elegant, or a distinguished, not of my choosing, most of the time.

I don't know about exact chances but everyone who tried trade inn when event's were around seems to get very good drops, like for trading 9 spiffies getting almost every time an elegant from costume collection during halloween, i tried that myself last time and it works great, got wendy flower head, krampwell head, catcoon tophat and wolfgang mactusk head from spiffies also there are some videos of people who did trade inn at sesonal events you can check that out.

I found this thread 

 

41 minutes ago, Kuba5565 said:

I found this thread 

Thanks, I found that one too.. Still no hard numbers, sadly.

41 minutes ago, Kuba5565 said:

for trading 9 spiffies getting almost every time an elegant from costume collection during halloween

That's definitely an improvement over the Trade Inn's usual odds, but is it more efficient than, say, buying the skins outright? (issues with duplicates/picking specific skins notwithstanding)

steam.tools tells me most spiffy skins go for 7 cents for ones immediately available, down to 5, maybe 4 if you're willing to wait. That puts whatever comes out of the one-armed bandit to a price of 0.36€ - 0.63€.

The prices of costume elegants (hats, heads) are all over the place, from 0.90€ (gekko nona) to >20€ (cauldron - wow, really?!), with average price for all costume elegants at ~4.80€. This would make getting spiffies a great value, assuming the "almost every trade" claim is accurate.

OTOH, the "guaranteed drop" - distinguished skins - are much less valuable, almost all of them (especially the costume collection ones) selling for just 0.12€.

In conclusion, at 4 cents per spiffy, buying them makes sense if chance of elegant is >5%, for 7 cents it starts making sense at 10%.

@Kynoox_ in that thread seemed to get 8 elegants out of "200+" spiffies. Let's make that 207, ie. 23 trades -> ~35% chance. That's not exactly what I'd call "almost every", but still well over the break-even threshold.

The big question is how much of an outlier is this case. I suspect as Hallowed Night event gets closer, the pricing for spiffies will reach a point where it will accurately indicate the chances of getting an elegant.

Another big question is what the possible outputs are for classy and common trade-ins, in or out-side of Hallowed Night event.

41 minutes ago, Zeklo said:

It's not just a chance to skip one rarity either. You can skip any amount as far as I'm aware. For said reason you can get Elegants from commons. It's just ridiculously rare and not viable in any way.

Well, if the drops are limited to Costume collection during Hallowed Night, the 4.80€ average for the elegants gives you quite the budget for trying - 18 common exchanges, and if all those fail, 2 classy exchanges. So, is it less or more than 5%? 

The reason I'm asking is to find out what's the most efficient use of dirt-cheap marketables (common, classy), as that's what I (and everyone else) are getting most of the time.

  • Holding onto them until a Hallowed Night or other event with elevated "luck" chance in trade inn roll around?
  • Selling them on the market, buying spiffies and trying my luck with those?
  • Ignore the higher-tier marketable skins entirely and unravel them for spools, so I can weave the other elegants?

Trade inn's default output is pretty bad even when compared to unravelling for spools, or selling off and buying missing spiffies/distinguished on the Steam market. The distinguished/elegant marketables are a real mystery to me - why do the prices vary so wildly?

7 minutes ago, myxal said:

The distinguished/elegant marketables are a real mystery to me - why do the prices vary so wildly?

The distinguished is lesser rare unless it's an event exclusive ( Winter's feast frock and the other cape with a ribbon )

Elegants are a cursed subject due to the famous Year of the Gobbler-event exclusive drop: Rooslet - It's possible to gain it every 12 WHOLE years at one time and then still, you need to have good chance to get an elegant AND to get the Rooslet out of the many possible elegants.

Wendy Elegants are uh... always expensive due to the playerbase... or potential nsfw artists who want to draw roseate wendy, get out of my head

Guest of Honor/Honour skins are somehow more expensive-mostly due to it being rarer than the other elegants for a long time ( Possibly because it was the first ever set to be released )

And you can see Wendy and GoH combine, with Wendy GoH head being 40 Euros ( roughly 20 - 30 euros more than GoH heads for others )

6 minutes ago, __IvoCZE__ said:

Elegants are a cursed subject due to the famous Year of the Gobbler-event exclusive drop: Rooslet

*checks Steam market*

Quote

5 for sale starting at 78,48€

:shock: To the moooooon...

But yeah, that's exactly the kind of info I was missing - so certain collections not only have elevated chances in lucky trade-ins, but are actually exclusive to events, and therefore unobtainable otherwise (ignoring Steam market)?

12 minutes ago, __IvoCZE__ said:

Guest of Honor/Honour skins are somehow more expensive-mostly due to it being rarer than the other elegants for a long time ( Possibly because it was the first ever set to be released )

What exactly does this mean? Are Formal skins less likely to drop as either regular (distinguished), or lucky (elegant) exchange for spiffy at trade inn? The difference in price would suggest that - when the character rework started, I set out to buy the future-heirloom distinguished skins. Rose and Shadow sets were fairly cheap, the Survivor ones less so, while the Formal skins were up in the stratosphere.

1 hour ago, myxal said:

But yeah, that's exactly the kind of info I was missing - so certain collections not only have elevated chances in lucky trade-ins, but are actually exclusive to events, and therefore unobtainable otherwise (ignoring Steam market)?

What exactly does this mean? Are Formal skins less likely to drop as either regular (distinguished), or lucky (elegant) exchange for spiffy at trade inn? The difference in price would suggest that - when the character rework started, I set out to buy the future-heirloom distinguished skins. Rose and Shadow sets were fairly cheap, the Survivor ones less so, while the Formal skins were up in the stratosphere.

For example GoH's Heads are rare-r than Survior/Shadow/Roseate heads.

Rooslet in this case is unknown since it's not a head and is part of the Lunar collection, and is unobtainable right now.

3 minutes ago, myxal said:

Heh, the preparations for the halloween trade-inn-gambling have begun, apparently.

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/322330/BODY_TRIMMED_BLOUSE_GREEN_CELADON

685 sold in the last 24 hours

 

Hmm, they will not get much for commons.

34 minutes ago, myxal said:

So, HN event has started.. anyone know if the drop rates remain the same throughout the event, or if there's another boost during the actual Halloween?

Yes the drop rates are boosted during the entire event, both normal/daily gifts and trade inn.

I got all this from trading spiffies 15 times, i got woodguards head twice but i sold one.

Przechwytywanie.PNG.95a227bc7785c4de60ce46150ec00d9f.PNG

17 minutes ago, Kuba5565 said:

I got all this from trading spiffies 15 times, i got woodguards head twice but i sold one.

 

15 trades -> 9 elegants? Wow... I went for classies, haven't traded yet, I'm hoping the higher number of trades with cheaper skins will result in at least as many elegants.

5 minutes ago, myxal said:

15 trades -> 9 elegants? Wow... I went for classies, haven't traded yet, I'm hoping the higher number of trades with cheaper skins will result in at least as many elegants.

Good luck to you then. I did 20 trades with commons and got no elegants and only 3 distingushed. And did some classies but still no elegants only some distingushed.

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Please be aware that the content of this thread may be outdated and no longer applicable.

×
  • Create New...