Chances of frog rain?

[Rellimarual]

I’ve been doing a solo Warly run and made it through three springs without a single frog rain. Ordinarily I would not complain, but there’s a triple moose spawn not too far from my base and that would be fun to see. Is my game bugged?

[BeeClops]

I'm not sure about exact % but 3 seasons with no frog rain is not enough to be worried, it will come imo. 

[Cheggf]

If you are in a situation where the frog rain poses a threat to your survival there is a 100% chance for three of them to happen back to back.

[Erineyes7]

Exceptionally high if you're playing with someone who's barely scraping by with you apparently.

My man Mr jorts did not deserve that 4 day constant on and off frog rain.

[penguin0616]

Chances are as follows: -100% (Never), 8% (Rare), 16% (Default), 33% (Often), 50% (Always), 100% (Forced)

[Rellimarual]

1 hour ago, penguin0616 said:

Chances are as follows: -100% (Never), 8% (Rare), 16% (Default), 33% (Often), 50% (Always), 100% (Forced)

I can’t believe the default is 16%, given how much I’m typically battered by them, but it makes this spell seem less freakish

[Cheggf]

2 hours ago, penguin0616 said:

Chances are as follows: -100% (Never), 8% (Rare), 16% (Default), 33% (Often), 50% (Always), 100% (Forced)

Is that the chance for a standard rain to be replaced with a frog rain?

[penguin0616]

1 minute ago, Cheggf said:

Is that the chance for a standard rain to be replaced with a frog rain?

Pretty much, yeah. It's all the same rain in the code, but if the chance roll succeeds it just starts queueing up frogs for spawning.

1 hour ago, Rellimarual said:

I can’t believe the default is 16%, given how much I’m typically battered by them, but it makes this spell seem less freakish

There's other factors such as a minimum precipitation rate and a minimum "maximum possible rain" that also need to pass.

[Crestwave]

There is a 16% chance for a rain to be marked as a frog rain when it starts, and it forever stays this way until it completely stops. It then starts spawning frogs if the rain becomes hard enough, and stops when it weakens or is about to stop.

This is why people keep thinking that they have back to back frog rains—in reality, it's probably the same frog rain that just paused and continued. This is further exacerbated by the fact that people kill moose with frogs; enraged moslings max out the rain time when they summon lightning, which guarantees you another frog wave.

[Dollmaker]

Its completely random actually, i heard from a player that once barely got any for many years and in a different world he got them extremely frequently. 

Its just luck, you can increase or decrease the chances in the settings. 

[LinknAllie]

It's a sign of great things to come.  Such as an entire spring of pure frog rain.

[Spino43]

Legends said that if your server has DemonRebuilt your chance of getting a frog rain increases significantly.