Disappointed with late game

[Mastermindx]

Honestly, I've been skeptical of achievement's stats for a while now.  I game I'm playing, Green Hell, has less than 11% of player ever saving their game. It has less than 15% of player surviving 1 night and less than 12% ever died.  In other word,  that would mean 85% of player never played the game for more than 1 hour.

[TheMule]

15 hours ago, Trego said:

which is that people should carefully consider not skipping past the first 20 hours of ONI by looking at outside help because it's a super fun stage of the game--and you can't go back and play your first 20 hours again if you regret that choice later.

Ok, I've never said they shouldn't. There's a huge difference between "figure it out alone" and "play the first 20 hours alone, then ask".

15 hours ago, Trego said:

As someone pointed out, achievements aren't tracked in sandbox mode; without statistics about how many players use sandbox mode we're just guessing as to what achievements actually mean.

Pretty much irrevant. It's a sample, it doesn't have to be the whole population. Unless you come up with a sound reason that colonies in sandbox mode are the vast majority (i.e. the sample is too small to represent the population) that's no counter argument.

And, most importantly, achievements are one shot only. They are not much significant in positive, in telling what people do, but they tell us what people don't do. Someone may spend 2000 hours playing the game in sandbox mode, yet all it takes to unlock the automation achievement is one building one time in one colony that wasn't in sandbox mode. Or are you saying you can confirm that those who play in sandbox mode never once played w/o sandbox?

 

15 hours ago, Trego said:

Without relevant statistics about other games retention, it's hard to interpret the numbers you mention.  Maybe ONI is actually doing great at retention compared to other similar games?

And how that is supposed to mean there's no room for improvement?

 

15 hours ago, Trego said:

You have apparently decided that people are quitting because the game is too complicated--what if people are quitting because they are following your advice and using premade modules and finding that path boring?  These are both just guesses about other people's experience.  How are these wildly aimed guesses better on relying on our own actual experience?

I've decided nothing. And please explain how they are following my advice and use premade modules and yet manage not to unlock achievements? I'm lost here.
And I'm relaying on my actual experience of helping people, here and on reddit mostly.
 

 

15 hours ago, Trego said:

In the absence of the above statistics, we kinda have to stick with our personal opinion about the game.  My personal experience, having played many similar games, is that ONI is extremely newbie friendly already, comparatively.

Well, we do have statistics, the fact that they are based on a sample of the players instead of the whole population doesn't make them wrong... actually I'm sure that's the definition of statistics.
And again, how is that supposed to mean we can't do better? We're not Klei, let them worry about the competition. I don't care how well other games do. I care that 60% of the actual players can't make past cycle 100. Or that they can't do that w/o using sandbox mode, which isn't really much different.

15 hours ago, Trego said:

However, in the absence of 'good enough' statistics

Apparently you've decided that the achievement count isn't good enough as statistics because it doesn't cover the whole population. Ok.

It's what we have, anyway. 

14 hours ago, Mastermindx said:

Honestly, I've been skeptical of achievement's stats for a while now.  I game I'm playing, Green Hell, has less than 11% of player ever saving their game. It has less than 15% of player surviving 1 night and less than 12% ever died.  In other word,  that would mean 85% of player never played the game for more than 1 hour.

I've addressed that in my first post about achievements. I'm ignoring all those who didn't get the first achievement, that is "One Bed One Bath", about 50%. So I'm doubling all the figures.

82% didn't make it to cycle 100 according to the achievement stats, but I'm saying it's 66% because I'm counting those who played at least the first cycles knowing what to do (outhouses, cots).

[TripleM999]

I think, steam achievement statistic is lacking and not representative for ONI playerbase cause of two aspects, mods and debug_enable.txt (maybe only the latter).

And to add to the learning discussion, I use copying as a shortcut to comprehension, so i'm probably camp 1.5. And copying/imitiating is indeed the very first step in learning in my opinion, at least as a blank sheet.

[MinhPham]

47 minutes ago, TripleM999 said:

I think, steam achievement statistic is lacking and not representative for ONI playerbase cause of two aspects, mods and debug_enable.txt (maybe only the latter).

And pirate copies ....

[Trego]

19 hours ago, TheMule said:

Ok, I've never said they shouldn't.

Yes, but you implied I said the opposite of my actual point, which is much much worse than if it'd just been that you'd said they shouldn't.  

19 hours ago, TheMule said:

Pretty much irrevant. It's a sample, it doesn't have to be the whole population. Unless you come up with a sound reason that colonies in sandbox mode are the vast majority (i.e. the sample is too small to represent the population) that's no counter argument.

No, it's not irrelevant, because that's not how a sample works.  A sample, in general use, is when you find a representative subgroup, of known size, of the entire population, also of known size.  Here we have some percentages, based on a subgroup of unknown size and probably not representative.  Also, these arguments are not independent, they are each related small flaws which all add up to one large flaw.

 

19 hours ago, TheMule said:

And how that is supposed to mean there's no room for improvement?

I honestly don't know but you appear to have managed it.

19 hours ago, TheMule said:

Apparently you've decided that the achievement count isn't good enough as statistics because it doesn't cover the whole population. Ok.

It's what we have, anyway. 

No, the statistics are not good enough for multiple reasons, which I listed already, with numbered points and everything.  For examples of how we could have better statistics,not even considering the achievements sample issue at all, I'll reiterate from my earlier numbered points, this time I'll use capital letters to really change things up:

A. We could have statistics where we simply ask a sample of former players why they quit playing, instead of have to guess why since we only have statistics on achievements.

B: We could have statistics where we compare ONI to other games in the areas you're mentioning, to give us a more concrete basis for comparison.  

The problem with looking at ONI in a vacuum and not comparing it to other games to judge player retention is that these players are quitting to play other games, they're not quitting because of some platonic ideal of ONI that it's not measuring up to.  You may not care about how well those other games do, but your argument is fatally flawed if you don't take that into account.

19 hours ago, TheMule said:

I've decided nothing.

But you must admit it does appear, to the outside observer, that you have?

Anyways, this particular exchange has almost nothing to do with my original comment in this thread at this point, which isn't surprising since it seems so often that you're responding to some other person entirely, or just going off on a tangent?  I'm not really sure, but good luck with whatever it is you're attempting to accomplish here.

[TheMule]

On 8/14/2020 at 5:16 AM, Trego said:

A sample, in general use, is when you find a representative subgroup, of known size, of the entire population, also of known size.  Here we have some percentages, based on a subgroup of unknown size and probably not representative

I don't know. You don't really have to know the size of the population, or anything about it. You can enter a town, ask 100 random citizens how it is to live there, and if 100 out of 100 say "it sucks here" you draw the same conclusion, for a small or a large town. Knowing the size of the population alters marginally the confidence in the result, only because it's - very slightly - easier to get by chance 100/100 unhappy citizens in a larger town. The real problem here is to make sure that the selection is really random. But even a slightly biased sample doesn't completely invalidate any conclusion you can make. If all the people are from the same neighborhood, it would be wrong to conclude that everybody is unhappy in that town, but you still can conclude that there's some sort of problem. And what you're looking for makes a ton of difference. If 100/100 from the same neighborhood say they are happy, you can't say all the town is happy and you can't say there's no problem in that town. The bias in the sample completely invalidates the conclusion.

Also, you need the size of the sample to compute the percentages. Here we're seeing the results. Of course Steam knows the size of the sample, or they wouldn't be able to compute the percentages in the first place.

And "probably not representative" is very vague. Why not? Do you think only a selected type of people unlock steam achievements? If we were looking at those who've unlocked all of them I'd agree, only very few people care about that. I'd played 2300+ hours before bothering taming a Gassy Moo, and I did that only for unlocking all achievements. That's when I've discovered the statistics btw, I'd never cared about achievements before that.

Yet the point is that you unlock most of the achivements even if you don't care. I did. The ones I keep mentioning are the 100cycles one, the automation one, and the bunker door (or the rocket) one. Those you may not care about, still you're getting them just by playing. I'm ignoring carnivore because is usually something people do for the achievement itself  (despite I got it w/o aiming at it during a large population run).

A sample can be as little as 1/10000 of the population, and still be significant if the choice is unbiased.

Are steam achievements biased? and how much? First of all, we're talking new players here. Not people who spend most of their time digging deep into the mechanisms of the game. Secondly, in order not to appaer in the steam statistics you have to use debug/sandmode mode in every colony. I don't believe most newbies know about these modes, let alone use them constantly for every map.

And BTW, even then, my point stands anyway.

It's either that very few newbies play with debug tools on, and the statistics are representative of them, or that most newbies play with debug on, on every colony, and never progress from that. To the point that few of them managed to reach cycle 100 w/o turning debug on.

And even if we were to be ok with that (newbies being stuck using debug tools to play), it's not that debug tools are the most polished part of the game, is it? Debug mode is everything but user-friendly, and sandbox mode looks like a first attempt at making debug tools useable by users in some way, but it's rather incomplete, to the point that you have to enable debug more anyway out of frustration. There's a ton of room for improvement.
 

On 8/14/2020 at 5:16 AM, Trego said:

that these players are quitting to play other games

Which games should we compare to? People may change genre completely. I come from MMOs. I'm a EvE player on vacation (a long one - I'm actively staying away from the game). I went to Neverwinter as less addicting MMO, got fed up with it, tried another MMO, it was the same, started playing City Skylines. A youtuber with content on CS also showed some ONI, and I got hooked up. Who knows what type of game I'll play when and if I quit ONI. Maybe I'll stay away from base building games for a while.

And that's not the point. With the exclusion of CS, which I played for 51 hours only, I've never left a game as a newbie. I've played from start to end (well there's no end in EvE - you get to the point you're no longer a newbie) most of them.

Why people leave is not relevant here. I don't care if they leave because another game does something better.

It's the fact most of them leave w/o experiencing 95% of the game. I'd like them to make an educated choice instead. That's what this is all about.

 

On 8/14/2020 at 5:16 AM, Trego said:

But you must admit it does appear, to the outside observer, that you have?

It appears I have an opinion. I'm a thinker, not a dictator.
 

[Cipupec2]

Sidetrack. Please add a search option for storage bins.

EDIT: also a way to toggle yellow priority for incapacitated/

[Trego]

8 hours ago, TheMule said:

 

And "probably not representative" is very vague. Why not? ....

Secondly, in order not to appaer in the steam statistics you have to use debug/sandmode mode in every colony. I don't believe most newbies know about these modes, let alone use them constantly for every map.

Well, you answered your own question there.  I suppose if you write enough words it's difficult to avoid answering your own questions eventually.

 

9 hours ago, TheMule said:

Why people leave is not relevant here. I don't care if they leave because another game does something better.

What if I don't care what you care about?  Then it's a battle of who could care less, which I will win because that's one of my favorite songs and I learned how to play it on the piano but with a Mozart-like twist, and someone once told me that Mozart is a genius-level composer.  However, that person has literally never decided anything in his life, so I'm not sure we can trust his decision on Mozart's talent level, as he denies making it in the first place.  I'm glad we can agree on at least one thing, though: "why people stop playing ONI[leave]" isn't relevant to a discussion about why "There's a clear progression, at every step we're bleeding players." (A quote from the first comment of yours that I replied to), but Mozart's talent level, on the other hand, now that's relevant. let's just agree to agree and let the rest stand, eh?

[TheMule]

10 hours ago, Trego said:

Well, you answered your own question there.  I suppose if you write enough words it's difficult to avoid answering your own questions eventually.

I think you need to read again what I wrote. 

 

10 hours ago, Trego said:

What if I don't care what you care about? 

Non sequitur.

I was making a point and some people kept missing it, and I had to do a better job at explaining it.

 

10 hours ago, Trego said:

I'm glad we can agree on at least one thing, though: "why people stop playing ONI[leave]" isn't relevant to a discussion about why "There's a clear progression, at every step we're bleeding players."

I might be relevant, or not, but it's for another discussion. What I'm worried about it that those steps are the initial ones.

 

But ok, let's do this: I keep helping people who are stuck with the initial game, writing in full details how they can progress, pointing at guides and youtube videos. You keep telling them they should figure them out themselves. Because, in case it got missing among the walls of text, that's what this discussion is all about. 

[Baer]

Some People should really overthink the Term "Fun". especiale with games what can be played alone. 

[Trego]

13 hours ago, TheMule said:

Because, in case it got missing among the walls of text, that's what this discussion is all about. 

I think you need to read again what I wrote.

[maltz]

I agree that currently end-game feels uninteresting. I cannot bring my self to "finish" (reach temporal tear) my third map. The game of long-term survival is essentially won 100+ turns before that. It will be nice if there is a new threat to existence triggered half-way mid game to inject some excitement and accelerates pacing. Looking forward to the DLC.