Gathering Skin Data

[RayramAB]

So in the past two weeks, I have asked some of my Steam friends to help me gather data on how long it takes for each skin to drop. I started this test a week after skin drops were messed up (some people didn't receive their skins due to a bug, but thankfully Klei quickly addressed and compensated all victims of the bug), as it was possible that perhaps Klei had tweaked skin drop times a little.
There was also the fact that many people were confused by what the wiki was saying on the matter. Many people had vastly different skin drop times than what was stated by the wiki. Unsurprisingly, this is because what the wiki states is what only one person tested on one week only, making it not much of a test at all and highly disputable.
Since only a small fraction of the players in my data have reached their 4th skins, and the fact that with the few data gatherers that I have,  I figured it would vastly speed up the process if I got some of you fine folks on the Klei forums to join in.
Here is a Google doc of the data I've collected so far:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qATnJwfAB-iLxj2JQ48QlO7ogxsmUbYJJct5obqPOjw/pubhtml
Any questions and/or observations are welcome.

So far I've had four instances of players reaching their 4th skin recorded. One at 11 hours and 3 minutes, one at 10 hours and 2 minutes, a week later with one at 6 hours 39 minutes, and another at 8 hours and twenty six minutes. As you can see, this is vastly different to the 16 hours and 15 minutes that the wiki states as approximate times.

Here's what you can do to help:
Every time you login to a server, record your current time onto a notepad or text document. Record the time every time you logout as well (even if you only login/logout for a short time). Every minute spent on a server in Don't Starve Together contributes to your likelihood of a skin drop. Most importantly, record the time for every skin you receive. Once you've recorded the time for your 4th skin, your data is complete for the week, and I'd like you to copy your timestamps here. If you don't have your 4th skin by the end of next Thursday (PST) when the skin drops reset, post it here anyway. Make sure you've labeled each timestamp as a logout, login, or a numbered skin drop. Hell, you can brag about if you got a cool drop or not.
An example of how I'd like the data formatted:
11:00 AM- Login
11:35 AM- 1st skin drop - Common Gray T-Shirt
12:01 PM - Logout

I look forward to the collection of more data from all of you.

[rezecib]

The wiki's numbers are more like a "you should expect to have gotten the gift by this amount of time", which to be honest is more useful than the average time-to-gift.

[RayramAB]

It would make sense it it was, but that isn't the case. The first skin is listed as appearing after 15 minutes, but you get the 1st skin more often than not after the fifteen minutes (Hence it's an approximation and not a time limit). The editor responsible for the skin times really did try and intend to state them as approximate times and not "you should get them in this amount of time".
 09:07, March 12, 2016‎ Ktesedale (wall | contribs)‎ . . (13,377 bytes) (+483)‎ . . (Added a bit more info (not positive on time for 4th skin, additionally this is after only one week testing) and the gift box icon.) 
The point of this data is to challenge the validity of the information listed. An anonymous poster pointed out that the information was insufficient, which is why the article now has "discuss" tags next to each skin time.
Link for convenience:
http://dont-starve-game.wikia.com/wiki/Skins
So yeah, while a "you should expect to have gotten the gift by this amount of time"  would be more useful, that's not what the information on the wiki is.

[Arlesienne]

Why is the document asking for my nick? I have no desire to let every random viewer of the file know my Steam ID. Or even link my forum nick to playtimes since it gets really subjective. Why not anonymity? User 1, User 2 etc.

Additionally, timezones do matter. Klei resets the counter every Thursday PST as the headquarters are in Canada. Obviously it has to be taken into consideration.

[RayramAB]

I don't need your nickname, of course. Entries listed here will be anonymous by default if I were to enter the information into the doc.
As for timezones, yes, do list them, however, the nature of the data is simply determining the time between skins relative to your own play times. So long as you don't play over the skin reset time before receiving all four drops, I don't think timezones will be too big of an issue, but feel free to point out anything that I'm missing.

[rezecib]

Were we supposed to be able to edit the data into the sheet? It's non-editable for me. You could probably throw up a Google Form to make data entry a lot smoother, without giving people permission to screw up existing data in the sheet.

I wrote a small mod to log this, and have two weeks of data from it. I have it logged in seconds from the last gift (or seconds from the start:

1st- 3621 seconds (1 hr)

2nd - 5036 seconds (1.4 hr)

3rd - 7922 seconds (2.2 hr)

4th - 21238 seconds (5.9 hr)

Total: 10.5 hr

Second week, the first one dropped while I was testing other stuff, so that's not logged.

2nd - 1441 seconds (0.4 hr, maybe testing after the first gift ate into this time? I didn't unwrap the first until starting the timer, though)

3rd - 15118 seconds (4.2 hr)

4th - 15482 seconds (4.3 hr)

Total: 8.9 hr, but probably should be around 10

[Arlesienne]

20 hours ago, rezecib said:

Were we supposed to be able to edit the data into the sheet? It's non-editable for me. You could probably throw up a Google Form to make data entry a lot smoother, without giving people permission to screw up existing data in the sheet.

I wrote a small mod to log this, and have two weeks of data from it. I have it logged in seconds from the last gift (or seconds from the start:

1st- 3621 seconds (1 hr)

2nd - 5036 seconds (1.4 hr)

3rd - 7922 seconds (2.2 hr)

4th - 21238 seconds (5.9 hr)

Total: 10.5 hr

Second week, the first one dropped while I was testing other stuff, so that's not logged.

2nd - 1441 seconds (0.4 hr, maybe testing after the first gift ate into this time? I didn't unwrap the first until starting the timer, though)

3rd - 15118 seconds (4.2 hr)

4th - 15482 seconds (4.3 hr)

Total: 8.9 hr, but probably should be around 10

Where can we install the mod please? Sounds useful.

[rezecib]

@Arlesienne I can't release it in its current form, but I'll look into making one I can.

[Arlesienne]

4 minutes ago, rezecib said:

@Arlesienne I can't release it in its current form, but I'll look into making one I can.

Alright. Thank you.

[rezecib]

@Arlesienne Here's a version of the logging mod. I couldn't test it thoroughly because I don't have any gifts left this week, but it doesn't crash on load, at least, and I tested the main parts in the console.

The "time since last gift" is inaccurate if you rejoin the server, including moving between the surface and caves, but I had it also print out a timestamp similar to the format @RayramAB proposed.

GiftLogger.zip

[RayramAB]

On 5/29/2016 at 0:01 PM, rezecib said:

Were we supposed to be able to edit the data into the sheet? It's non-editable for me. You could probably throw up a Google Form to make data entry a lot smoother, without giving people permission to screw up existing data in the sheet.

The data was not supposed to be editable. I can put up a Google form, but I haven't used Google Forms before, so forgive me for my inexperience. Is there a way I can automatically put the information from a Google Form into the Sheet, or would I still have to do manual entries?
Btw, thanks heaps for that mod, that'll help tremendously.

[rezecib]

3 minutes ago, RayramAB said:

Is there a way I can automatically put the information from a Google Form into the Sheet, or would I still have to do manual entries?

Yeah, the basic idea of a Google Form is that it has a bunch of questions, and each question goes into a cell, and each submission of the form fills out a row of the sheet.

[CassieCroft]

4.19 - Logged In

4.55 - Logged Off

1.10 - Logged In

1.40 - Present

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3.20 - Logged On

3.41 - Present

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6.30 - Logged In

7.30 - Present

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2.02 - Logged In

2.34 - Present

4.10 - Logged Off

[TemporaryMan]

Well, according to rezecib's logger, I got

1. 3763 seconds (1.02 hours)*
2. 5031 seconds (1.40 hours)
3. 1601 seconds (0.44 hours)*
4. 15303 seconds (4.25 hours)

* I was idling and not paying attention, so these two might have sat there for several minutes before opening

This was all in one session starting shortly after 6 PM EST.

[Rily]

Excuse me, did you know if the drop system remembers your items or something, the fact is that I didn't get the same replicated drops for a while, I got lots of pleated shirts when the skins came but now I didn't got any of them, after that I got lots of pants, since the past 3 weeks I got a lot of common gloves but no more pants or pleated shirts, I feel like the game prevents you to get lots of the same item, probably when you get a certain item the chance to get it again gets smaller, could it be?, and I don't know how often you get high value drops but I have a good and a bad week, the past week I got 2 distinguished 1 spiffy and 1 classy, the week before were 4 commons, before that 3 classy and one spiffy, right now I'm in the bad week, today since the reset I got 2 commons, if my prediction is correct I could get another 2 damn commons and the next week classy ones or better, I know that it should be random but I can't ignore the facts, maybe the deal with that potato-cup religious fanatic guy after the Charlie's puzzle succeded after all

[t1morino88eex]

@Rily you can't predict anything. Why would you want to know the details of the drop system? Many people asked, we never got any details such as percentages or drop chances for each rarity. It's all luck nothing more, nothing less.

[leonseye]

12 hours ago, t1morino88eex said:

@Rily you can't predict anything. Why would you want to know the details of the drop system? Many people asked, we never got any details such as percentages or drop chances for each rarity. It's all luck nothing more, nothing less.

I thought the purpose of this experiment was to try to determine whether or not this is actually the case, since there's no concrete evidence about it yet.

I'm interested in seeing actual data, rather than simply accepting "it's all luck" w/out any real testing to back that up.

[CassieCroft]

5.29 pm - Logged in

5.51 pm - Logged out

 

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8.14 pm - Logged In

8.28 pm - Present

8.35  pm - Logged Out

 

8.40 pm - Logged In

10.17 pm - Present

1.13 am - Present

2.25 am - Logged Out

 

9.41 am - Logged In

11.18 am - Present

11.35 am - Logged Out

[obzerverlk]

Actually the time of skins' drop is useless for most people, and if some one want to know that, i can provide some data by a photo below.

The blue line means how many times the second gift spent after i got the first gift, and the red line means the time 3rd - 2nd, the green line means the 4th - 3rd.

 

[Arlesienne]

1 hour ago, obzerverlk said:

Actually the time of skins' drop is useless for most people, and if some one want to know that, i can provide some data by a photo below.

The blue line means how many times the second gift spent after i got the first gift, and the red line means the time 3rd - 2nd, the green line means the 4th - 3rd.

 

Ditto. The system used for drops is a randomiser. The only thing you can take for granted is its randomness.

[TemporaryMan]

Sure, it's random.  But with a sufficient sample size we can determine average values, minimum and maximum, whether it's a flat distribution or a curve, standard deviation (if it's a bell curve), etc.

[CassieCroft]

@RayramAB I'm so sorry but I forgot to post last weeks data. Here it is:

6.36 - Logged In
7.03 - Logged out
7.06 - Logged In
7.12 - Present
9.14 - Present
9.20 - Logged Out
8.21 - Logged in
9.45 - Logged Out
9.48 - Logged In
11.00 - Logged out
11:05 - Logged In
11.52 - Logged Out
11.53 - Logged In
12.01 - Present
1.47 - Logged Off
4.13 - Logged In
4.40 - Logged Out
6.35 - Logged In
9.38 - Logged Out
3.45 - Logged In
5.06 - Present
6.36 - Logged Off

I will post this weeks data much more promptly. Sorry 

[CassieCroft]

Well. I didnt expect to have the data for you so soon - but here it is:

5.14 - Logged In
6.10 - Present 
6.17 - Logged Out
6.29 - Logged In
7.19 - Present 
9.53 - Logged Out
10.26 - Logged In 
11.57 - Present 
12.53 - Present 
1.52 - Logged Out

[CassieCroft]

8pm - logged in
8.28 - present
9.53 - present
10.53 - present
12.30 - logged out
Did log in for about 15 mins but forgot to note sorry
1.19 - logged in
2.50 - present
3.27 -logged off