Is the randomness of war chests really fair?

[Donut Steeve]

Now I know many people have already posted topics about similar things, requesting to be able to buy / sell Skins from the forge or even 'Pity timers' so after a set amount of time your chances of getting a rarer Skin is increased etc. But I just want to know if other players find it a good way to distribute items amongst players. Now yes I know many people will just say 'buy the forge set and unravel it' or maybe ' It's random so you get what you get' but I personally don't think it is actually fair. I'm not one of those people who hates the way Klei are developing the game or any of it's mechanisms or content, I understand why they chose a random chance of getting items from forge chests, so as to make sure everyone has an equal chance of getting said item, not favouring certain players over others, however from what I have found from playing the forge both in beta and in the Live version is that the random chance is not something I enjoy.

I play DTS with my GF and we pretty much played in the same groups for the same amount of time during the Forge event and yes with the same chance of Elegant Skins dropping but having done 3 weeks of the Forge live server I've found that the number of Elegants and spools that we have are not equal (which in my opinion is the meaning of fair).. During the Beta I got to level 30 and got 4 Elegants from war chests which I felt was fine but during the live version, in which I am now level 73 I only have 4 Elegants and 3.5K spools while my GF is level 70 has 9 Elegants and 4k spools and pretty much the same number of all the other forge collectables.

Yes there are probably people out there thinking that I am just butthurt because I didn't get as many things as I wanted and people out there who have played just as much as me and other players and got even less but that doesn't detract from my point, in fact I believe it reinforces it, the way I see it is that at the start when everyone is equal because they have nothing and everyone has the same chance of getting the same things (which is fair) but later on as people play and get more items (or not) I don't think it is still is as I think you should get rewarded in line with how much effort/ time / money etc. you put into it not whether you are lucky or not. At the end of the day what it really equates to is 'lucky' people will find it a good system as they feel more rewarded for the time they have put in but if you are one of the 'unlucky' players who didn't get equally rewarded then you've definitely ended up worse off and for no other reason then random chance, and will therefor either have to buy skin sets to get what they want (if they can afford) or just deal with not having things that are most likely a 1 time eventuality and NEVER EVER HAVE THEM, which for some might be fine but for me personally makes me sad and frustrated as I love the game and collecting skins is something I really enjoy doing. 

I would recommend for further events that instead of receiving a 'war chest' after levelling up which could I guess have the equivalent of between 20 and 1800 spools (from unravelling obviously) that players should simply receive spools (similarly to how experience is given out after finishing a round of the Forge) so the input would equal output the same for all players participating instead of it being 'you all completed it but for no reason at all some of you will get more then others, not linked in anyway to how you played or the time you spent'. And with the spools you received you can then weave them into items of your choosing. 

Sorry for the long post that's pretty ranty, I just haven't been happy with the reward system but I honestly believe my idea is a better way of doing it. Thanks.

 

TLDR: NO FAIR KLEI WHY YOU NOT GIVE ME ALL THE ELEGANTS, I'M MUCH BUTTHURT, I THINK YOU SHOULD TAKE ALL THE FUN OUT OF LOOT BY GIVING EVERYONE SPOOLS ONLY SO I NEVER HAVE BUTTHURT AGAIN!

[landromat]

Spools are not fun. Chests are fun, BUT if random don't screw you up. I got my first 3 elegants from first 100 chests, and next 3 from last 23.

Just Give people Guarantee elegant every (insert amount) chests so people will not feel bad because bad random and it's okay

[Toros]

When people say something is fair they need to distinguish whether they're talking about equity or equality.  Equality is equal opportunities, equity is equal outcomes.  Treating everyone the same is equality.  Making sure everyone has the same is equity.

The forge provides equality, which statistically will trend towards equity in the same way flipping a coin trends towards a 50/50 distribution with enough trials.  Assuming you and your gf would play enough your numbers would typically become more similar over time.

Of course, the other thing to consider that for the same amount of time as 3 forge matches you could work and buy 12 elegants plus a bunch of other clothing or a total of nearly 8k spools, which makes the entire grinding an inefficient way to convert your time into elegants.  If you're enjoying playing the game mode, then skin drops are just a secondary perk and forcing equity still isn't very important.

[landromat]

Current random can make unlucky people grind/spend 2 times more than people with good luck for same amount of spools/items. I don't like that

[Donut Steeve]

Landromat, I agree that spools are not fun and chests are more fun (it's somewhat like a fruit machine). But I don't agree with having a 'Pity timer' because this still doesn't reinforce positive playing it just means that you get rewarded for no real reason.

Toros, I understand that equality and equity are not the same thing but your statement of 'The forge provides equality, which statistically will trend towards equity' is purely based simple averages but as you will be aware if you flipped a coin 100 times the chances of getting 50/50 is actually pretty uncommon as it's all random and the randomness does not even it's self out as after flipping a coin 10 times heads the chance of the 11th being heads is still 50/50. and I don't have a job, don't have lots of money and if I do buy a skin set i will have to sacrifice something else, most likely something material in my life, so while it is an option it is not one I will happily take.

[landromat]

1 minute ago, Donut Steeve said:

you get rewarded for no real reason.

Pity timer just makes bad luck less bad. It resets every time you get elegant so average player will not even notice it. Getting 3 elegants from 100 chests it terrible and not fun at all

[Donut Steeve]

Just now, landromat said:

Pity timer just makes bad luck less bad. It resets every time you get elegant so average player will not even notice it. Getting 3 elegants from 100 chests it terrible and not fun at all

I agree that it would be better but it's basically a pretty crappy fix on a flawed system, instead of fixing the actual problem.

[landromat]

5 minutes ago, Donut Steeve said:

I agree that it would be better but it's basically a pretty crappy fix on a flawed system, instead of fixing the actual problem.

It works very good in Hearthstone and Overwatch. It's still random, but you'll never get terrible luck that can discourage you to play the game. i believe every good game with loot boxes using pity timer now

[Donut Steeve]

Just now, landromat said:

It works very good in Hearthstone and Overwatch. It's still random, but you'll never get terrible luck that can discourage you to play the game

TBH I have no knowledge of the reward system in either of those games so I can't really have an opinion on it but I don't like the feeling of being pitied I guess, maybe it should be rephrased to sound like it's something actually deserved lol

Infact I think I do know alittle about hearthstone, i'm sure you get like 1 elite every 20 packs or something right?

[landromat]

Just now, Donut Steeve said:

TBH I have no knowledge of the reward system in either of those games so I can't really have an opinion on it but I don't like the feeling of being pitied I guess, maybe it should be rephrased to sound like it's something actually deserved lol

yeah, it's vulgar name, but i think you deserve your elegant after opening certain amount of chests and not getting any

[Donut Steeve]

Maybe that would actually be the best idea then, it doesn't kill the fun of opening chests, is still random and doesn't give anyone more then other people just makes it so they arn't grinding for the chance of getting an Elegant. I just thought giving out spools is an easy way to make it fairer but ye it's not fun at all. But it's also not fun to spend time for basically nothing, getting excited just to get a box full of junk you already have and get 50 spools out for them.

[Zeklo]

The thread's question in itself is counter intuitive. Randomness favors none. It treats all equally but doesn't reward or punish all equally—it's just random.

But here's my take.

I'm a skin collector. I've been grinding a ton of Forge in order to get skins. So this might be a bit odd coming from me:

I don't mean to aim this at anyone in particular but people seem to have gotten more & more entitled with the introduction of the War Chests, and it's because you earn them through effort. People are starting to put in effort for the sake of skins instead of just playing the game for fun. So when their effort gives poor results they get annoyed. The real issue isn't the chests, so to say, but the way people are looking at the Forge—means to getting skins, and not just a new fun event.

[landromat]

1 minute ago, Zeklo said:

the way people are looking at the Forge—means to getting skins, and not just a new fun event.

I disagree. Skins are time limited. It's obvious people want to get them. There is only 2 ways to get them: grind or pay. Thats why not getting Elegant items makes you feel bad. It means you have to grind more, pay more, or never get items you want

[Tukmens]

46 minutes ago, Donut Steeve said:

Landromat, I agree that spools are not fun and chests are more fun (it's somewhat like a fruit machine). But I don't agree with having a 'Pity timer' because this still doesn't reinforce positive playing it just means that you get rewarded for no real reason.

Toros, I understand that equality and equity are not the same thing but your statement of 'The forge provides equality, which statistically will trend towards equity' is purely based simple averages but as you will be aware if you flipped a coin 100 times the chances of getting 50/50 is actually pretty uncommon as it's all random and the randomness does not even it's self out as after flipping a coin 10 times heads the chance of the 11th being heads is still 50/50. and I don't have a job, don't have lots of money and if I do buy a skin set i will have to sacrifice something else, most likely something material in my life, so while it is an option it is not one I will happily take.

That's not how statistics work. Randomness always evens itself out and if you do more throws the more precise the outcome will be. This experiment is done millions of times and you can repeat it in your home with a coin or code a simple program if you don't believe us. Yeah, chance to get 11th head will be 50/50 but chance to get 11 heads in a row is 1/2048, so you have to be very, very very unlucky. Do 11 more and chance getting 22 heads will be 1/4194304. Get more boxes and you will get items.

[Donut Steeve]

Zeklo out of interest how many Elegants have you received and what level are you? I would argue however that the randomness does favour some more then others in terms of results, which ultimately is what counts.

1 minute ago, Tukmens said:

That's not how statistics work. Randomness always evens itself out and if you do more throws the more precise the outcome will be. This experiment is done millions of times and you can repeat it in your home with a coin or code a simple program if you don't believe us. Yeah, chance to get 11th head will be 50/50 but chance to get 11 heads in a row is 1/2048, so you have to be very, very very unlucky. Do 11 more and chance getting 22 heads will be 1/4194304. Get more boxes and you will get items

But the chance does not accumulate like that, the previous toss of a coin has no impact on what the next one will be so each time it's 50/50 just like as you open a chest the items are randomised and given out, in theory yes things should even themselves out but that doesn't mean they have to. In a Lottery if you pick the balls that have be drawn least it doesn't make you any more likely to actually win as the universe doesn't 'remember' what happened last time, it creates a random outcome in that instance entirely unaffected by the past.

You are basically saying that once at some point it will be equal but once a finite number of instances has been set how can you say 'it will even it's self out' under those parameters?

[landromat]

3 minutes ago, Tukmens said:

Get more boxes

problem is we need more xp with each level to get new box. it's very hard to get more than 100 boxes for average player

so, 100 boxes for player, someone will get 10 elegants, someone 15, and someone will get 1 elegant from 100 chests.

You can't just say get more boxes because it's hard and event is time limited

[Tukmens]

6 minutes ago, Donut Steeve said:

Zeklo out of interest how many Elegants have you received and what level are you? I would argue however that the randomness does favour some more then others in terms of results, which ultimately is what counts.

But the chance does not accumulate like that, the previous toss of a coin has no impact on what the next one will be so each time it's 50/50 just like as you open a chest the items are randomised and given out, in theory yes things should even themselves out but that doesn't mean they have to. In a Lottery if you pick the balls that have be drawn least it doesn't make you any more likely to actually win as the universe doesn't 'remember' what happened last time, it creates a random outcome in that instance entirely unaffected by the past.

They have to even themselves out, as I mentioned in my comment, chance is 50/50 each time, but getting unlucky multiple times in a row also has its own chance which is shrinking with each try but it doesn't affect the outcome. If chance to get 11 unlucky openings is 1/2048 it just says that one of the 2048 players can get this unlucky +/- error, but odds are strongly against of that happening to you. Most of the players has to land in the first Gaussian normal distribution level, yes, there can be few players left out in the far ends of the distribution but that minority will be so small that we shouldn't care about them.

[landromat]

2 minutes ago, Tukmens said:

we shouldn't care about them.

yeah, screw these unlucky plebs

[Tukmens]

Just now, landromat said:

yeah, screw these unlucky plebs

In that case there are only 2 ways to get out of the Gaussian distribution. Give everyone the same items by level or same amount of spools. But then maybe someone else will come and tell that he's unlucky with his team and his team always looses and he can't get enough spools etc.

[Donut Steeve]

11 minutes ago, Tukmens said:

They have to even themselves out, as I mentioned in my comment, chance is 50/50 each time, but getting unlucky multiple times in a row also has its own chance which is shrinking with each try but it doesn't affect the outcome. If chance to get 11 unlucky openings is 1/2048 it just says that one of the 2048 players can get this unlucky +/- error, but odds are strongly against of that happening to you. Most of the players has to land in the first Gaussian normal distribution level, yes, there can be few players left out in the far ends of the distribution but that minority will be so small that we shouldn't care about them.

That's not how it works at all. these chances don't all accumulate into 1 so that it ends up being inevitable. Yes probability would make it likely to happened eventually but that can only be applied theoretically and before results.

But still has no influence on actual outcome. Otherwise it wouldn't be random chance.

 

5 minutes ago, Tukmens said:

In that case there are only 2 ways to get out of the Gaussian distribution. Give everyone the same items by level or same amount of spools. But then maybe someone else will come and tell that he's unlucky with his team and his team always looses and he can't get enough spools etc.

But there is a way around that, he could come on here and ask for people to play with.

[Zeklo]

27 minutes ago, Donut Steeve said:

Zeklo out of interest how many Elegants have you received and what level are you?

Level 124. 11 Elegants. Having bought the entire characters' skin pack, and unweaving all dupes, I have acquired enough spool for all items in the Forge.

[landromat]

3 minutes ago, Zeklo said:

Level 124. 11 Elegants. Having bought the entire characters' skin pack, and unweaving all dupes, I have acquired enough spool for all items in the Forge.

almost twice more than me. I bought pack too and it's not enough to get all forge items

/shrug

[Donut Steeve]

2 minutes ago, Zeklo said:

Level 124. 11 Elegants. Having bought the entire characters' skin pack, and unweaving all dupes, I have acquired enough spool for all items in the Forge.

You've not been unlucky then and have played lots but if you hadn't brought the full character skin pack do you think you would be able to weave all items even if you played this last week as much as the previous 3? Ultimately I would also like all the forge sets but I doubt I'll get over level 100 before it finishes and at my rate i'll have 2 Elegants more (hopefully not) and enough spools for 4 Elegants I want. for a total of 10 Elegants out of a possible 26.

6 minutes ago, landromat said:

almost twice more than me. I bought pack too and it's not enough to get all forge items

/shrug

I think this literally says exactly why I don't think it's fair.

[Zeklo]

5 minutes ago, Donut Steeve said:

You've not been unlucky then and have played lots but if you hadn't brought the full character skin pack do you think you would be able to weave all items even if you played this last week as much as the previous 3? Ultimately I would also like all the forge sets but I doubt I'll get over level 100 before it finishes and at my rate i'll have 2 Elegants more (hopefully not) and enough spools for 4 Elegants I want. for a total of 10 Elegants out of a possible 26.

No I don't think if I hadn't bought the skin pack I would be able to get them all. If it were that easy to acquire all skins then Klei wouldn't be making any money off it, and wouldn't be able to keep working on DST content.

7 minutes ago, Donut Steeve said:

I think this literally says exactly why I don't think it's fair.

I got lucky during the full release. In the Beta out of 48 chests I got NO elegants. In the real thing I got 3 out of 48. 

It's RNG. You win some, you lose some.

I have 2,047 hours in DST. Only one elegant from gifts from all that time. I've been very unlucky, but that's how it goes. It's about time I had gotten some good luck, be it in the Forge or not.

[Donut Steeve]

18 minutes ago, Zeklo said:

I got lucky during the full release. In the Beta out of 48 chests I got NO elegants. In the real thing I got 3 out of 48. 

It's RNG. You win some, you lose some.

I have 2,047 hours in DST. Only one elegant from gifts from all that time. I've been very unlucky, but that's how it goes. It's about time I had gotten some good luck, be it in the Forge or not.

Yeah I get what you mean, I have been lucky with Elegants in normal DST wich i've played 1.5k hours, I think i've had 6 or 7, but I think because forge is limited time I feel an urgence to get them (which i suppose is klei's goal as to make people purchase skins[not saying they are greedy or anything, content doesn't make it's self after all])