Bigfoot

Winona Character Update & Drop System Changes

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peiper    8

So 15 drops per week... Since I have 5 accounts, 15 x 5 = 75. Time to start farming!

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__IvoCZE__    5,678
1 hour ago, axxel said:

There are two scenes with the same background. One of them has a circle and "12"

image.png.9a0767978a7cfa83dea3ff547ad2dd37.png

that might be just the scene numbering during the animation making.

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Mooagain    1,141

@Bigfoot Are the new characters like Wortox getting new animated shorts too? Or is it just for the old characters?

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BerryGood    3
2 hours ago, Viktor234 said:

Previously you were limited to four skins a week and had a chance of 0.005 to get an Elegant with each drop, so there was a chance of

1 - (1 - 0.005)^  4 = 0,019850499375 =   1,99%

to get at least a single elegant drop each week.

Now you can get up to 15 skins a week, and you have a chance of 0.023 to get an Elegant with each drop, so now there's a chance of

1 - (1 - 0.023)^15 = 0,294627610868 = 29,46%

to get at least a single elegant drop each week.

But on the other hand waveable items can now drop aswell so not every item will be tradeable on Steam or the Trade Inn.

No, drops are independent, each time they occur.

Thus, the probabilty stays the same no matter how many times a drop occur.

For every drop the probability was 0.5% and now it is 2.3%

So, now every time you get a drop, you have 2.3% to get en elegant, not 29.46%

Cheers

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ToSoublaki    12
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, BerryGood said:

No, drops are independent, each time they occur.

Thus, the probabilty stays the same no matter how many times a drop occur.

For every drop the probability was 0.5% and now it is 2.3%

So, now every time you get a drop, you have 2.3% to get en elegant, not 29.46%

Cheers

He's calculating the chance of getting an elegant out of 15 tries.

Edited by ToSoublaki
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JimmyJam    1,282
33 minutes ago, FuffledBeeQueen said:

:thinking_emoji: Wagstaff is that you? You look very, very, uhm muscular.
dNDi3ol.png

Where is that image on the right from? Been asking around but no one has said.

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Gagarin-ace    640

what the time of drop now?

as i remember it was 0.5, 2, 4, 10

now 0.5, 2, 4, 10, 20, 40, 80, and last one 160 ?

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BerryGood    3
1 hour ago, ToSoublaki said:

He's calculating the chance of getting an elegant out of 15 tries.

No, that is not how <independent> probabilities work, sorry

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Zeklo    15,927
8 minutes ago, BerryGood said:

No, that is not how <independent> probabilities work, sorry

It's exactly because its independent probability that it works. The probability will remain the same over any span of time. The chance of getting an elegant is 2.3%. However the whole point of probability is to make inferences. The likelihood of getting an elegant "increases" the more drops you get. The probability isn't changing but statistically you should get one in a set amount of time. Doesn't mean you will but probability suggests it.

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BerryGood    3
5 minutes ago, Zeklo said:

It's exactly because its independent probability that it works. The probability will remain the same over any span of time. The chance of getting an elegant is 2.3%. However the whole point of probability is to make inferences. The likelihood of getting an elegant "increases" the more drops you get. The probability isn't changing but statistically you should get one in a set amount of time. Doesn't mean you will but probability suggests it.

Hello Zeklo, so after 45 drops the probability > 100%

At that point he will for sure get an elegant?

Is that what you mean?

Cheers

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Zeklo    15,927
2 minutes ago, BerryGood said:

Hello Zeklo, so after 45 drops the probability > 100%

At that point he will for sure get an elegant?

Is that what you mean?

Cheers

Statistically, yes. Realistically, who knows. 

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Zeklo    15,927

Wait, is Heirloom rarity meant to show up with the "unowned" filter on?

That'll drive me nuts if so. 

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Ressayez    1,620

I hope we don't have to own both Heirloom and Elegant versions of the same item for our collections to appear complete :p

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Tapirus    1,655
56 minutes ago, lifetheuniverse said:

It's Likely that Charlie pulled her in through a portal 'connected' by Maxwell. Her trait of switching personalities is the way she was before acquiring the Throne (ANR trailer), meaning Winona was likely pulled in during Maxwell's reign, even if he didn't do it/didn't personally engage with her due to lack of awareness of her presence.

Exactly, Winona is a "stowaway", arriving to Constant due to her intervention with the portal in Voxola.

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Terra M Welch    1,791
18 minutes ago, PeterA said:

We're still looking at how we want the design of this to work.

In the mean time you could turn the Weaveable filter on to hide them.

Does this mean if someone wanted to 100% winona right now they'd need both the heirloom and normal elegants?

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fimmatek    3,089
1 hour ago, BerryGood said:

No, drops are independent, each time they occur.

Thus, the probabilty stays the same no matter how many times a drop occur.

For every drop the probability was 0.5% and now it is 2.3%

So, now every time you get a drop, you have 2.3% to get en elegant, not 29.46%

Cheers

Drops are indeed independent, each of them has the same 2,3% chance to be an elegant. But out of 15 drops it has 29,46% chance to have at least one elegant. Not all elegants, but at least one. 

27 minutes ago, BerryGood said:

Hello Zeklo, so after 45 drops the probability > 100%

At that point he will for sure get an elegant?

Is that what you mean?

Cheers

The longer you play, the higher the expected number of elegants get. After some time it'll reach 1 and get past it. This means that on long term average, you can expect one elegant in that time. And while it's not guaranteed that any will drop, it is also popssible that multiple ones drop, so on average you would get one.

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